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飓风“种子”的存活影响飓风季节强度

Justin Rowell by Justin Rowell
29.09.2022
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Source: Geophysical Research Letters

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. 本文是Eos文章的授权翻译。

预测在飓风季节会形成多少热带飓风对于减灾和备灾非常重要,但很难准确预测。之前的研究表明,有两个因素影响热带气旋的数量:热带气旋“种子”(对流层低层的弱涡)的数量和它们的存活率。我们需要更好地理解导致风暴种子演变为全面飓风和台风的条件,以帮助科学家预测未来气候变化情景下风暴季节的强度。

根据一项新的研究,利用气候条件来估计潜在热带气旋种子的存活率是预测未来飓风的一种有用方法。Ikehata和Satoh表明,尽管有大量的潜在飓风和台风在海洋上空形成,但这不仅仅是一个数字游戏,即更多的种子风暴意味着更多的飓风。种子需要合适的条件才能存活。

“种子(数量)的变化在未来并不那么重要——我们需要研究更多的存活率,”该研究的作者之一、东京大学大气和海洋研究所的气候科学家Masaki Satoh说,“这与之前的观点相反”,之前的观点认为热带气旋种子的数量主要影响飓风季节的强度。

为得出这一结论,作者研究了2000年至2018年间北半球夏季热带气旋和热带气旋种子的数据库。他们还收集了风暴期间的大气变量和海洋表面温度,以确定热带风暴种子生长所需的最佳条件。

他们发现,给定月份出现的种子数量与一个地区天气系统的平均涡度或旋转速度,以及平均垂直风速有关。在研究期内,只有约10%-20%的种子转化为热带气旋。气候条件,如海洋表面温度、湿度和风,决定了种子是否会形成飓风。

尽管研究者在这篇论文中没有考虑气候变化,但已有许多研究表明,气候变化很可能会影响未来全球热带气旋的形成。Satoh表示,他们关于热带气旋种子存活的研究结果可以应用到未来的研究中,研究随着气候的不断变化,飓风的频率和严重程度在未来会发生怎样的变化。(Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093626, 2021)

-科学作家Joshua Learn (@JoshuaLearn1)

This translation was made by Wiley. 本文翻译由Wiley提供。

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Text © 2022. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.


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